As election night unfolded, betting markets had moved in favour of a Trump victory, with improved odds for the sitting President standing in stark contrast to his predicted prospects from the day prior.
Final polling on November 3 had indicated Biden had the best chance of winning, leading Donald Trump nationally on average by 8.4 per cent at last reading, more than double Hillary Clinton’s lead by election day in 2016.
Yet closer than expected races in the key swings states mean negative polling and dire predictions for Trump may have vastly underestimated his chances of a shock victory.
With the benefit of hindsight pundits may point to the President’s approval ratings barely shifting despite a tumultuous year and core support for his economic and migration policies as signs Trump would again prove the victorious underdog.
Results in key states are still expected – check this page regularly to see the latest results as and when they come in.
The key swing states left to watch
All 50 states and the District of Columbia voted in Tuesday’s election. To win a candidate needs at least 270 of the 538 votes on offer in the US’s indirect voting system – the electoral college – where candidates pick up votes by coming first in a state and getting its proportional share of the total. Victory in California, population of 39.5m, earns you 55 electoral college votes, while winning Wyoming, home to 580,000, gets you three.
Pennsylvania is one of key states to watch, but results did not come through on election night. It is part of America’s ‘Rust Belt’ – a region hit hard by industrial decline – and was key to Trump’s victory in 2016. If Biden wins her, having claimed Wisconsin and Michigan, he’s likely on course for the presidency.