It appears the former Vice President can confidently count on around 230 electoral college votes from Democratic bastions like California, which delivers 55 votes to the electoral college and at the moment sees Biden leading Trump by roughly 62 per cent to 31 per cent.
Biden then looks set to pick up a further 30 or so electoral college votes from states by no means safe but leaning in his direction in local polling, taking him within arm’s reach of the goal of 270. This includes Virginia and Michigan, where he holds a 7 per cent lead over Trump – similar to the gap between them at a national level.
But as one moves down the list of states ranked by Biden’s lead – and into the realms of tinier gaps and more inaccurate polls – it becomes clear that around 128 further electoral votes are locked up in 7 swing states where Biden or Trump leads by less than 2 per cent.
These states , which include Florida, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, are the key battlegrounds of 2020, and defeat across the board could be enough to prevent Biden reaching the 270 to win the presidency, even with his large national lead.
Of course, though victory for Trump is still possible, Biden has the clear advantage – winning even one or two of the swing states may be enough to deliver him the White House.
Trump, on the other hand, has a much steeper hill to climb, with Telegraph analysis based on polling averages suggesting he needs to win at least four out of seven of the states – and every path to victory for Trump requires winning Texas.
Such close races mean that the major events of the campaign – like the president’s Covid-19 diagnosis and seeming recovery – have the potential to tip the balance either way in these key states.
Read more: Who won the final election debate?
Retaining the base
If Trump is to have any chance of securing a second term it is crucial he retains – and builds on – his voting base from 2016.
In some of the key battleground states Trump flipped the popular vote from the Democrats largely due to his support among white, generally older and less educated, men.
According to data from Pew Research, Trump’s rode to victory in 2016 with the support of more than two thirds (67 per cent) of white men over the age of 50. Among white non-college graduates he picked up 64 per cent of the vote.
It lies in contrast with the support that rallied behind Hillary Clinton, with more than one in five (82 per cent) of non-white women over 50 years of age and 82 per cent of non-white women aged between 18 and 49.