The latest poll from the Keystone state, conducted by Civiqs on October 26th, has Joe Biden ahead 52-46. The average poll puts Mr Biden ahead by somewhere between five and seven points.
Both men have made multiple stops to the state in the run-in, with a combined 10 appearances in September. “The candidates have been virtually living here,” Terry Madonna, a pollster and political analyst at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, told USA Today. “That tells you how important Pennsylvania is.”
Pennsylvania is also Mr Biden’s home state. The 77-year-old Democrat was born in Scranton, a small town about two hours north of Philadelphia. Though he left as a child and represented Delaware as a senator for his entire career in Congress, Mr Biden’s roots boost his chances to win here.
College-educated, suburban white voters are expected to be key, and this provides Mr Biden with an advantage. The coronavirus pandemic is a key issue for this demographic, particularly in Pennsylvania, which has the eighth highest death toll for any state, at 8,745.
The traditional support base for the Democrats in the state has been blue-collar, working class voters. Mr Biden comes from a working-class background and he hopes that this will endear him to the voters who abandoned the party for Mr Trump in 2016.
Statistical modelling by FiveThirtyEight shows that Pennsylvania is the state that is most likely to put Mr Biden over the top and give him the presidency.